Wednesday, July 15, 2009

I can't help but think but think about the theory of Reflexivity postulated by George Soros. Basically he says the market doesn't anticipate the economy, so much as it actually changes peoples expectations and that, in and of itself, changes the fundamental outlook for the economy.

Read about Soros here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/how-soros-does-it.asp

So now that people have seen their retirement go from $1,350,000 down to $666,000 and now waaaay back up to to $932,000 they feel flush with cash relative to where they were March 10 and now they're ready to buy their kids a computer for their return to college. So every one is abuzz about Intel's sales expectations. I wonder if they will still feel that fuzzy if their account goes back to $830,000 or $750,000.

I also think there may be something else afoot. Microsoft really screwed up Vista. Many companies including mine opted not to upgrade from Windows XP to Vista and as a consequence opted not to upgrade their computers. Microsoft will be launching Windows 7 on October 22 which is supposed to be much better than Vista. I think companies are finally ready to update their antiquated computers, and this is probably helping Intel. My feeling is that Intel is benefitting from this, but I don't think it is a good proxy for the state of the economy.

Of course I could be wrong, and if the tape powers well above todays close of 932, I will admit defeat and close my short position.
-Rick

No comments:

Post a Comment